I had some very interesting conversation with the two chinese grad students in my lab today about Taiwan. It was sparked by my asking some questions after reading
this article about PRC threats in response to the ROC's presidential push for a formal nationwide referendum.
I was rather surprised by how vehemently they thought that taiwan was indeed part of china. Of course, one was quite candid about how all mention of taiwan in chinese media from birth onward refers to it as part of china, and therefore it is rather difficult to think otherwise. I was also surprised at the attitude that it would be ok for china to use military force to resecure taiwan and even that it would be preferable to wreck the island in lieu of actually 'letting' it be independent ('letting' is in quotes since the status quo is actually allowing taiwan to be de facto independent).
Of course from the American standpoint things look a little different. We have a proud tradition of the little guy standing up against the big guy. Our own nation was established via violent seccession from a larger nation. We've even had states that
have tried to get out of the union and even though they did not succeed (thank goodness in hindsight) and even if their constitutional case for seccession was not airtight, there still exists some sympathy for the notion that it was at least their right to try to withdraw from the union. Add to that the fact that china still falls on the "commie" side of the old cold-war equation, while taiwan is has become a much more free society (since the demise of chiang) and it becomes understandable why we would likely guarantee taiwan's soveignity should it ever come to war.
My own analysis of the situation leads me to believe that this is a short term stable, long term unstable situation. It's probably more stable than the korea issue actually. Think about it... right now taiwan has everything they want except in name, and the fact that there are hundreds of SSM on the mainland pointed their way. Meanwhile, the PRC benefits from trade with the nation (more so than if its economy were directly subject to beijing I would imagine), and occaisionally get's to distract people (either its own citizens, or the US) by rattling the sabre.
Would anything be gained by war? Well, even assuming that the US did NOT become involved, I have a hard time envisioning a scenario whereby China could win a military victory. Clyde suggested that PRC strategy might revovle around saturation of the island with missiles, thereby demoralizing the populace and leading to the fall of the government. Maybe I'm projecting too many American values onto the people of taiwan, but i have my doubts that approach would work.
As to invasion and occupation, it really seems impossible. First, it would be difficult for the PLAN and PLAAF to establish uncontested control of the strait. I think the best they could hope for would be to contest it. Even if they did manage to control the strait, there wouldn't be enough shipping/air lift capacity for an invasion to succeed. The best I think that beijing could hope for (short of using nukes or chems) would be a bloody standoff, and that would not be in their best interests. And of course, if the US entered the conflict, a couple of carrier battle groups and some Los Angeles class SSN would render even a stalemate unlikely.
Anyhow, I think war is unlikely, because as I said earlier I think the situation is stable in the short term. In the long term, hopefully free market reforms and slow democratization of china will lead to a situation where taiwan would have nothing to lose by joining china. I can't be certain, but I would imagine that taiwanese aspirations for independence have little to do with cultural barriers, but rather more to do with what they would stand to lose in liberty and prosperity by tying themselves to the PRC. Maybe I'm wrong on that, someone who is actually taiwanese will have to correct me.
Anyhow, as long as both sides continue to act fairly rationally, I think things should be ok for the next couple decades... here's hoping.